David Ortiz, the 2005 MVP argument

David Ortiz is a non-statistician's dream player - who needs statistics when you can switch on Baseball Tonight and watch yet another game winning hit from the ever-smiling Big Pappi?

But for this to be a worthwhile look at the race, we need to look at all the numbers, look at these relative to other candidates (and I will quote Ortiz next to A-Rod and Vlad as these seem to be the consensus picks at this stage), and look at the importance of that big black mark against Pappi's candidacy... his lack of defensive input.

If we look first at the basic numbers;

	BA	R	HR	RBI	OBP	SLG
Ortiz	.295	106	40	126	.395	.594
Rodriguez	.318	105	41	110	.418	.600
Guerrero	.313	84	29	97	.387	.563

These numbers are pretty even between A-Rod and Ortiz, I will trade you the BA for the RBI (well I wouldn't but...) - A-Rod's BA lead is a reflection of his personal skill and Ortiz's lead in RBI could be (note the careful use of the word "could") down to the greater number of opportunities afforded to him.

If we look at some more 'interpretive' stats (and look here for definitions);

	BA/RS	Clutch	RC	RC/ G	WS	HWS
Ortiz	.348	3.2	117	8.5	26	25.6
Rodriguez	.273	-10.9	114	8.5	29	26.7
Guerrero	.339	2.3	100	8.4	23	20.5

The difference in Batting Average with Runners in Scoring Position is enormous between our AL East candidates - one view of A-Rod is that he puts up his biggest numbers when it just doesn't matter - to me, that 75 point difference is enormous - and does add weight to that A-Fraud view.

The Clutch statistic is an attempt by the guys at the Hardball Times to quantify performance in the does it / doesn't it exist world of 'clutch'. While Ortiz has a significant lead over A-Rod, neither is close to being their team leader (a small sigh of relief from Yankee fans), and there are clearly other definitions of clutch that could be used.

Runs Created and Runs Created per Game are pretty even between the guys, all three are in the top ten perfomers in the AL, though again A-Rod and Ortiz are not team leaders (damn that pesky Sheffield / Ramirez duo).

The final two columns are Win Shares and Hitting Win Shares - the latter to strip out the contribution of the non Ortiz's candidates defensive contribution - again these players are all close - with A-Rod having a slight edge. As you will see, A-Rod's defensive WS amount to 2.3 Win Shares - less than 1 game over the course of the season to date - is that really enough to deny someone the MVP award? If you read my earlier post about the W VP, you will see the names Juan Gonzalez and Jason Giambi - neither player is on that list because of their defensive excellence - I think the various articles that are being written that mention Ortiz's lack of everyday playing position are looking for reasons not to give the award to him - I agree that there is a strong case for another candidate, but to cite Ortiz's DH status, to me, isn't valid.

There are still 20 games to go in the 2005 season - perhaps one of the players has such a strong end to the season that this debate seems silly. In itself though, that is one of the weaknesses of the award system. Writers vote on the award in very large part based on what they remember - not what they look up, analyze and consider.

When I look at the Sox this season, if Ortiz hadn't performed at the level he has this year, would the Sox be where they are? Manny has had a good year, but a down year by his standards - without Ortiz, the Sox are nowhere this season. A night after watching Ortiz hit another game winning HR, he is my vote for AL MVP 2005.

Neil - over to you!