Tuesday, November 14, 2006

The 'Evil Empire' win the Matsuzaka bidding war

Well if Larry Luccinho can call the Yankees the evil empire for committing $32m over four years to a player that the Red Sox wanted (Jose Contreras) then surely Yankees fans have the right to make a similar retort following the Sox committing around the $90-100m mark on a player the Yankees wanted?




In all seriousness, if the Red Sox have come up with over $40m to bid for the rights just to talk to this guy, which is the figure being banded about, then firstly they've overspent, but secondly, they've got the best option out there to bolster their starting rotation.

Every single projection has Daisuke Matsizaka at worst as a #3 guy on a good team, and in all honesty he's a #1/#2 guy. He would be a star for the Red Sox and props to them if they've won the auction, which now seems all but assured. I'm not going to say that because the Yankees haven't gotten him that he's suddenly a bad pitcher, I really think this kid will come over a win 18 games with an ERA in the mid 3's in the AL East, which is about as stud as you get in that division, and if I'm being honest, that is my worst case scenario for him, if he's injury free and settles into the American culture and way of life quickly, then maybe his line will be even better at the end of the year.

I do think they've overpaid for him, and I'd of thought the Yankees had at that price as well. However as a fan deep down you don't really care how much your team spends as long as you get the players you want, so that is probably only a minor point. One thing that I do feel is that the Sox have now lost the rights to sulk and moan about the 'Big, Bad Yankees' as they are committing a stunning sum of money to a player and are the favourites to commit to a huge contract to JD Drew n all. If they sign both these players then suddenly their payroll starts creeping up, still a fair stone's throw down from the Yankees I agree, but it'll be closer to $150m than $100m and for the 2007 season alone (because the posting fee is a one-off hit) then the amount spent on players would be pretty damn close.

I fully expect to hear noises out of Red Sox nation that the Yankees are evil at some point during the season, they are ruining the game, we can't compete etc, it just seems par for the course now.

Still, on the Matsuzaka front, the Sox have won this exchange and gained an ace, with Barry Zito the next biggest option out there, then you have to say that is is a huge win for the Red Sox in the opening round of the 2006/2007 off season. Last year then traded Hanley Ramirez, Anibel Sanchez and another whose name escapes me for Josh Beckett and won the opening exchanges, as yet that hasn't come to fruition as a great deal for Boston, the Daisuke Matsuzaka one though will have a very different outcome..

7 threw a strike:

At 1:18 pm, Blogger Neil H said...

Who knew that Yankee fans were so sensitive?

One posting fee does not suddenly mean we are in the same financial league... you need to wait until we have signed Lugo, Drew and Gagne before you throw that around.

Seriously, our payroll this year will still be about $50m less than the Yankees - that doesn't count for anything?

And more importantly, given that Yankee fans seem to be saying that the Sox 'can't complain' anymore, does that mean we were right to complain all along? I don't seem to remember that mantra before...

At 1:24 pm, Blogger Neil H said...

I would agree with your point that the Sox seem to have overspent - but teh important question is, by how much?

As soon as they bid $1 more than the second highest team, then they overspent, but that is what a blind auction is about, it is the incentive for the seller to participate.

So instead of focusing on $90m - $100m, let us concentrate on what the Sox might have overspent by - are we really saying that $3m, $4m, $10m or $20m is that critical a number?

At 5:38 pm, Blogger Neil M said...

Your payroll may be around $50m less but your money spent committed on players would be roughly the same.

I don't believe that the Red Sox had the right to complain that the Yankees payroll considering their owner is a billionaire and just chose not to spend so much on his team, now he has, good for him, and RSN, but the complaints are now not valid.

As for overspending, if say the posting fee is $42m as Gammons reports and say Matsuzaka get a 4yr/$48m deal, which is around the figure you'd be looking at and then it works out at $22.5m net over the four years, the biggest money ever spent on a pitcher.

Now if Matsuzaka is a $22.5m pitcher then I'd want Pedro numbers in his prime.

For the record I believe I was extremely fair in this blog update.

At 12:01 am, Anonymous Anonymous said...

First I think that you have to remember that the posting fee buys a players rights for Six years. That makes for a 7 mil per year before the contract. Second I think Boras will not want a long term contract because the Sox hold the cards right now. If they don't sign him then they hold his rights next year, so they can say look this is it take it or leave it.

Now, I think the Sox will want a 3 year contract, around 10 mil - maybe up to 13 mil per year, this will be less than Mussina this year and next. Who would you rather have Mussina or Matsu?

Will be interesting to see how it plays out, but you have to admit it has been nice to see the hot stove get fired up.

(Luke, I am your father).

At 11:02 am, Blogger Neil M said...

I'd rather have Matsuzaka clearly but whilst the rights do last six years, expect Boras to insist on a Matsui clause granting full Free Agency after 3 or 4 years. Also Moose will get a 2/20 or 2/22 deal, which will be less than Matsuzaka who will probably be in the 4/48 range.

At 5:40 pm, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Yankees ROCK

At 6:45 am, Anonymous Anonymous said...

You can't call someone evil and then go out and do exactly what you condemned the evil ones for doing.


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